Ethiopia’s recent rhetoric surrounding the annexation of Eritrea’s coastline should raise alarm bells for anyone watching the Horn of Africa.
ByDaniel Haile
March 16, 2025
War does not begin with bullets but with deception. In Ethiopia’s ongoing ethnic fragmentation, truth has become the first casualty, buried beneath propaganda, revisionist history, and the ambitions of those seeking to monopolize power.
Ethiopia’s recent rhetoric surrounding the annexation of Eritrea’s coastline should raise alarm bells for anyone watching the Horn of Africa. The echoes of Haile Selassie’s imperial ambitions, particularly his forced annexation of Eritrea, are unmistakable. Now, under the regime of Abiy Ahmed, those ambitions are being resurrected. This is not mere nationalistic bluster; Ethiopia and Eritrea are on a collision course, and the prospect of renewed conflict grows by the day.
Abiy, despite posturing as a reformist, is a brute authoritarian backed into a corner. Ethiopia’s ethno-political divisions, which have festered for decades and become entrenched in the country’s social fabric, are no longer just political headaches; they are existential threats to his rule. Ethiopia has never been a unified country historically, Abyssinia and precedingly Ethiopia was always a country divided along ethnic lines. The claim that Ethiopia became ethnically divided in the past three decades due to ethnic federalism is a deliberate piece of propaganda, aimed at shifting the blame for the current ethnic fragmentation onto the regime that preceded the regime of Abiy Ahmed. Meles Zenawi, the former autocratic leader of Ethiopia, fundamentally reshaped the nation’s political landscape by instituting a system of regional federalism based on ethnic lines. This strategy sought to balance power dynamics among Ethiopia’s diverse ethnic groups within a country historically fragmented along ethnic and linguistic lines. Ethiopia has always been deeply ethnically divided, long before the advent of ethnic federalism.
In this context, a war with Eritrea is more than just a regional flashpoint; it is a potential lifeline for Abiy to consolidate power, neutralize internal dissent, and redirect national insecurity outward. This war is something Abiy needs more than Isaias Afewerki. For Abiy, conflict serves as a rallying cry, an opportunity to manufacture unity in a country unraveling under ethnic violence and fragmentation. His own Oromo base is growing increasingly disillusioned, and his reliance on nationalist factions signals desperation rather than strategy. With pressure mounting from all sides, the prospect of war offers Abiy an escape hatch, a means to silence opposition and tighten his grip.
Abiy’s flirtation with Ethiopian irredentism is not about imperial restoration; it is about political survival. His rhetoric on reclaiming Eritrea’s Red Sea access masks a deeper reality: his government lacks legitimacy, and his hold on power is maintained solely through a monopoly on violence in Addis Ababa. His alignment with Ethiopian ultranationalists underscores his precarious position. War would provide a pretext to suppress internal threats from the FANO, a decentralized Amhara rebel force, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), all under the guise of national security. Yet this gamble is fraught with peril. Ethiopia is not a military hegemon in the Horn of Africa; its forces are stretched thin, bogged down in Tigray, Oromia, Amhara, and Ogaden, and riddled with factionalism. Opening a new front against Eritrea would not project strength; it would expose desperation.
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